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Japan's economy was paralyzed for a decade as banks failed to deal with their troubled loans. That's why it's nothing short of stunning to discover some U.S. banks are doing the same thing now.
Despite all the tough talk out of Washington and Wall Street about how the U.S. can't repeat what happened in Japan, the reality is that banks are granting extensions to borrowers in one key category, commercial real-estate loans, so they don't default. It's a bet that economic conditions will improve before the loans come due.
"They are kicking the can down the road, hoping things will be better soon," said Barry Ritholtz, head of the financial research firm FusionIQ and author of the new book "Bailout Nation."
This maneuvering is being called "extend and pretend" in financial circles, reflecting banks' willingness to extend loan maturities because they believe -- or hope-- rental rates and building values could come back to levels seen during the peak of the real-estate market in 2007.
Ritholtz and other financial experts worry that banks are just delaying the inevitable by not dealing with troubled loans now. And since commercial loans are such an important part of the portfolio of many small and midsized banks, it also could constrain their ability to make other new loans. An average of 20 percent of local and regional banks' loan exposure is in commercial real estate vs 4 percent for the nation's biggest banks, according to data from Deutsche Bank.
