Wednesday, March 25, 2009

One Small Problem with Geithner's Plan: It Will Bankrupt the Banks

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http://finance.yahoo.com/techticker/article/218286/One-Small-Problem-with-Geithner's-Plan:-It-Will-Bankrupt-the-Banks

Ah what's another 14 trillion?

The big problem with Tim Geithner's plan to fix the banks is the same as it ever was: The gap between what banks say their assets are worth and what the market says they are worth.

When a bank says an asset is worth 60 cents and the market says it's worth 30 cents, someone has to cover that spread. The genius of Geithner's plan is that it pawns most of the cost (and most of the risk) off on the taxpayer without the taxpayer noticing.

But unless the taxpayer gets stuck with the entire spread, which is probably what Geithner is hoping, banks that sell assets will have to take massive writedowns. This will start the whole cycle of violence again.

This risk to the banks is particularly acute when dealing with