The Biggest Shock From This Friday's Payroll Report (Sorry Men)

Tyler, you missed the WHY, that is so unlike you. Even the "Fight club kids" missed it. I'm shocked lol.
The WHY, is because the traditional male job in manufacturing has been outsourced, and what wasn't outsourced was replaced by the technically use of robotics. Which happens to be a very trending thing and will soon be used to replace those in the Health care profession.
Women tend to work in "Service provided" areas. Cashiers,grocery clerks, waitress etc..., There isn't much left out there these days, proven by the segmenting of the class categorizing that each of those still working males, fall within that 69%. Private, government, and military segmentation would work to color that picture a whole lot more.
It would be interesting to see that very same breakdown concerning women to.
Combined on a Pie chart would even be better

By now much has been written about the joke that was the collapse in the labor force participation rate. Perhaps too much, especially for a topic which as we predicted back in early 2011, would be the primary fudge factor allowing mainstream media headlines to blast America's economic renaissance. Remember: it is all about "confidence." Little, however, has been said about the constituents of this dramatic plunge to a 31 year low, namely the simplest distinction: that between genders. As the chart below shows, when one spreads the labor force by sex, the Friday data is particularly sad for one class of workers: Men. Because as the seasonally adjusted data shows, the labor force participation rate for men just printed at 69.8%. It has never been lower.

The Reason Why The Unemployment Rate Dropped: The Labor Participation Rate Is At Fresh 31 Year Lows

Very soon (the way the chart looks) the labor participation chart is going to look like something right out of the late 60's or early 70's, when it was not necessarily normal for women to work. Yes there was a time when women actually stayed home and kept house, and raised their kids. Our children where better off, for those days of glory gone by, as well. Gangs were almost non existent, and the drop out rate was well. Moms at home do actually benefit their children. Old fashion,I know, but one cannot deny the benefits derived from it. Teenage pregnancy was almost unheard of, and when it did happen, the kids responsible for it either got married, or the baby was given up for adoption, because there was no such thing as "Aid for dependant Children" or "WIC". Society was still of the mind frame back then, that, your error was your problem. All women back then, knew how to cook, because there was no such thing as microwaves and fast food joints on every corner, nor was there the huge choices that we now have for prefab food. Children were healthier for it as well, because childhood obesity was pretty much non existent. When kids came home from school back then, mom had their snack ready, sat down and did their homework with them, and then the kids went outside to play with their friends until Dad came home and Mom rang the dinner bell to call them into eat. ADD and all it's derivatives didn't exist, because mothers actually had time to teach their children things like patients and the proper manners of being a decent little human being. Children didn't run their parents, because parents actually knew how to parent back then, and moms would put a swift stop to bad behavior. They didn't make up excuses for temper tantrums because in essence, they weren't tolerated, because society still considered it an embarrassment factor back then and a large reflection was taken into consideration, against the mother and the father, as to how well they were actually caring for their kids. Children weren't depressed or shunned by their peers back then, because mothers knew how to socialize with each other on a much more intimate basis than they do today and their fledgling learned by those examples set.
It was the best of times, without the worst. People didn't try and keep up with the Jones, because their were no Jones yet. They weren't created until women actually went outside the home to work, which then allowed envy then to rear it's ugly head, so that all women felt the need to work, to buy the extra things, that going to work allowed, those other women to have, thus giving birth to the Jones.
Anyway sorry for the side track, but it was actually taking me to a point, that being, of the number of jobs in existence, as opposed to the number of people in the work force. Basically it boils down to, not enough jobs for to many people. Wage is stagnant, because employers are spoiled for choice and don't have to give into demand.
Could part of the solution to this problem be, to revert back to the time when wholesome was not a bad word? When Mom's job, was to take care, of her family, and it was accepted as being a very important position in society, rather than looked upon, as being a "lazy loaf", for having stayed home to work, in the traditional manner? The males of society would definitely have a little more leverage in negotiating a wage increase, there is no doubt about that, because the competition for his position would be cut in half.
Anyway, it's something for society as a whole to ponder upon, in order to procure, a cure for labor participation's recovery. Rather than Mom trying to be "Supermom" (with career and the "home" factor) and making herself, as well as her family, neurotic in the attempt,wouldn't it just be better for "all" for Mom just to allowed to be Mom?
"Ozzy and Harriet" wasn't so bad, and "June and Ward" had it really going on, and if something doesn't give, we're all going to be living like the "Waltons" except most of us don't "own" the mountain to live on.
Think about it.

Curious why the unemployment rate dropped from 8.3% to 8.1%, even as just 96,000 jobs were added? The labor participation rate declined from 63.7% to 63.5%, the lowest since 1981. It means that somehow in August the labor force declined by 368,000 people, which is a paradox since according to the household survey 119,000 jobs were lost in August, yet at the same time the unemployment rate dropped. Remember: it is an election year

ADP August: +201k

Damn, Karl is good lol, (I had to look twice after he told me.)
But depressing to, because of the absolute honesty he uses, in showing the individual pieces of the puzzle, that makes up the "big picture"

Just when I thought the silly couldn't get any more so I get a report like this.

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 201,000 from July to August, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gain from June to July was revised up from the initial estimate of 163,000 to 173,000.

Did you catch it?

The first is a statement of change.

The second is an admission that the statement is not factual; it is an estimate.

I've always known that ADP estimates employment changes because they do not handle all of the payrolls -- they extrapolate to the entire economy from their customer data, which they actually have. So their data is a count, but the extrapolation makes a number of assumptions, one of the most-important being that the ratio of firms using them to not is something they can adequately measure.

This is one of the many reasons their data is often wildly at odds with the NFP that comes out two days (or one, in the case of a holiday as was the case this month) later.

But -- did you know this? If you didn't, now you do.

In any event you have to take notice of this number as it is wildly over expectations. My best guess for tomorrow has to be ratcheted up to +125k as a consequence of it and the claims number this morning -- I was at +99k (just under 100k), so this is a fairly significant revision.

At the same time I want to note that effectively the entire gain in this report (92%) was in service jobs, and while our economy is about 70% service sector, this strongly implies that what's being created are "McJobs" that pay crap and have zero or few benefits -- that is, the common worker's standard of living is continuing its inevitable decline.

Help not wanted: U.S. online job ads see biggest two-month decline since recession

Well one could make this out to positive news, but unfortunately unemployment statistics don't support the evidence found, so that the only conclusion that one can draw is that hiring has receded further

U.S.job seekers saw online job ads dwindle this summer, according to a survey from The Conference Board. Advertised vacancies fell 108,700 in August to 4,684,800, the industry group said.

Jonathan Basile at Credit Suisse noted that the combined drop of 262,000 jobs for July and August was the biggest two-month decline since the last recession

Democrats Fumble Major Israel Issue, Put Jerusalem As Capital In Platform

Rather than make the United States the focus of it's campaign, the democrats have once again COWED to political pressure ( think huge corporate donors here)and Israels priorities come first.
Forget Jobs and the economy or the thieving banks,or almost 50 million households on food stamps, our priority must always be Israel first.
And WHY, because that's who is running this country! That the duel citizenship in our legislative body along with corporate big bucks buying off the party. Once bought , they bend.

Jerusalem is not the capital of Israel, it's Palestinians, and the United States has no right to say it is, even the UN doesn't recognize it as such.
Just because you occupied it for 400 years, and then got thrown out in (get this) 587 BCE (before Christ) does not mean you own it. Britain and the United States had no business offering it to them.
Seriously people it you do it for one, doesn't it ring true that it should be done for all?
Just think of how many "people" could take their original land back. Heck if the Indians do it, there is no United States.

A big flip flop by the Democratic Party has replaced what was perceived as a big snub to Israel.

It was a stunning development. The party had dropped the assertion that Jerusalem was the capital of the Jewish state, but on Wednesday evening the Democrats had a change of heart. The vote went down just before 6 p.m. and it was quite contentious on the floor. It needed a two-thirds majority and it took three votes to get it, CBS 2’s Marcia Kramer reported.

And even after the vote, many thought the crowd of delegates on the floor was split 50-50, rather than delivering the two-thirds majority needed.

The Democrats caved, changing the platform language to reflect that they now regard Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. It came about as a result of intense political pressure,”

June Foodstamp Recipients Hit All Time High As Three Times As Many Americans Enter Poverty As Find Jobs

I was digging for a little more information on how Snap participant numbers are derived, whether the number represents number of households or they are actually the total of members per household. Well I still haven't found that, but I did find this
http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/29snapcurrpp.htm
And at the very bottom it states this
May and June 2012 data are preliminary and are subject to significant revision.
So not only do unemployment numbers get revised, but SNAP numbers do as well.
I feel like we're all looking at a Monet up close and we won't know what the real picture looks like until we can stand back far enough away to see it.
The only problem with that is, these are human lives we're talking about, not art, and standing back far enough, is the equivalent of decades further into the future of time, and when involving human lives, the view from decades back, is entirely to late, to stop what's unfolding now.

Updated: I did find out that the figure released by the Gov is a household figure. All members in the household unit are counted as 1.
When you look at the census count figure of 330 million people, and you figure on the lessor side of 3 member per house hold, almost half if not better than (due to the least number of members per household used)people in the United States no longer have a viable income to enable the survival of their family.
That my friends IS THE BIG PICTURE, and monthly that picture expands.

Following a brief period in which it seemed that US foodstamp recipients may have peaked, with those living in poverty maxing out at 46.514 million in December 2011, and then declining modestly for the next few months, June saw a new surge in those Americans living in poverty and thus eligible for foodstamps, with 173,600 new entrants into the system, bringing the total to a new all time high of 46.670 million and once again rising fast. Furthermore, with subsequent emergency events affecting the heartland due to the drought, the administration has made sure even more Americans will be eligible going forward. As a result expect the July and August numbers to promptly surpass 47 million on their way to the psychological resistance level of 50 million. Indicatively, the 173,600 increase in Foodstamps recipients in June was three times greater than Americans finding jobs (64,000, most of which part-time) according to the BLS. Finally, a new record was also breached for American households on foodstamps, which now hit 22.4 million, an increase of 106,298 households. The average benefit per household decline once more, this time to $276.5. Not an all time low, but just above it.

Persons on Foodstamps

Jobs Report (See I Told You So!)

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=173913


And this my friends is why I offer up to you, Karl on a daily basis.
I'm not educated enough to understand the whys and whats of the spin that these reports are written in.
Karl is.
I bow to the master, because I want you to understand that the simplified truth of their version, is bullshit!
"WE" can't afford not to understand exactly what they're doing when they're manipulating these reports.
Because what's in these reports show the full truth of just how loud "OUR" death rattle actually is.

(Incidentally, someone needs to explain to these clowns that a dollar collapse that comes with a stock market collapse at the same time is a situation the monetary authorities cannot arrest with more "money printing", as that will simply tighten the spiral. I have warned of this risk for more than a year - God help us if it becomes realized.)

Those who follow me know that I pay almost no attention to the "headline" numbers in the report though. Why? Because they're full of hopium and BS. Instead, I look to the household survey, which is an actual count. What do we find there this month?

In a word: NASTY.

185,000 people were added to the working-age population (238530 to 238715). But the employed number actually fell by 334,000 people (139749 to 139415), which means that on an employed rate basis over 500,000 jobs were lost.

The claimed "improvement" was all adjustments - to the tune of 360,000 alleged jobs that households reported didn't exist!

Employers in U.S. Cut More Jobs Than Forecast in September

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Employers-in-US-Cut-More-Jobs-bloomberg-126013039.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

Another revision, it's like the government just has no idea anymore.
I think it's called to big to care and the inefficiencies of it show.
Note how the precentage of the unemployed still stays the same.

The U.S. lost more jobs than forecast in September, reflecting a decline in government payrolls that shows the damage being done by rising fiscal deficits.

Employers cut staffing by 95,000 workers after a revised 57,000 decrease in August, Labor Department figures in Washington showed today. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 5,000 drop. The unemployment rate unexpectedly held at 9.6 percent.

Private payrolls that exclude government agencies climbed 64,000, less than forecast, underscoring the concern expressed by some Federal Reserve policy makers that the rebound from the worst recession since the 1930s has been too slow and may require easier monetary policy. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project unemployment will average at least 9 percent through 2011, which may restrain consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy.

Unemployment fund borrowing to pay claims

http://www.boston.com/business/ticker/2010/02/unemployment_fu.html

[B]And where is the Federal government getting this money from for the states to borrow it? [/B]

The deep recession and extended period of high unemployment have exhausted the fund that pays jobless benefits in Massachusetts, requiring the state to borrow from the federal government, the state Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development reported today.

The fund, which is financed by premiums paid by businesses, ran out of money on February 9, and began borrowing from federal government to pay claims. Massachusetts is one of 30 states that have exhausted state trust funds and are borrowing to pay benefits, according to the US Labor Department. The Labor Department expects the 40 states to be borrowing by the end of the year. Under federal stimulus legislation, states can borrow interest-free through 2010.

The Massachusetts unemployment

Pay-go gets passed, then it gets bypassed

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/81405-pay-go-gets-passed-then-it-gets-bypassed

A hard decision has to be made kids, it's impossible to keep extending unemployment and COBRA payments forever.
The system setup wasn't designed for it.
The honest truth is, people will suffer, but a rational decision on their cut off must be made, "WE" can no longer sustain the drain.


The ink is barely dry on the pay-as-you-go law, and Democrats are seeking to bypass it to enact parts of their job-creation agenda.


Democratic leaders said extensions of unemployment insurance and COBRA healthcare benefits should be emergency spending that isn’t subject to the pay-as-you-go statute, which requires new non-discretionary spending to be offset with spending cuts or tax increases.



With current extensions of unemployment and COBRA benefits set to expire at the end of the month and the jobless rate still near 10 percent, Democratic lawmakers want to pass the extensions quickly, without having to find offsets for the costs.

Benefits backlog stalls millions in need

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2009-12-13-backlog_N.htm


Millions of Americans are waiting longer for unemployment checks, disability payments and food stamps as states furlough workers who process the benefits.
States in financial crises are cutting staff while people in need flood agencies with applications, says Margaret Simms of the Urban Institute, which studies social and economic issues. "The length of the recession clearly has put a strain on the resources that states can bring to bear," Simms says.

Backlogs are growing:

The state of the States

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/unemployment-benfits-north-carolina-borrowing-full-part-time-hours-minyanville/index/a/25713

Unemployment Is Taking the Rest of Us Down With It


Fifteen states have collectively borrowed more than $15 billion and another nine states are in the red over unemployment benefits. Please consider Jobless claims put state in debt.


North Carolina's high unemployment rate has stuck the state with $1.4 billion in debt -- money that officials don't know how they'll pay back.

It gets worse. The debt is still rising. The problem is that with about 500,000 people out of work, the state has more unemployment claims than it can pay. So it has been borrowing from the federal government since February, sometimes as much as $20 million a day.

The tally will rise to at least $2 billion by the end of the year, said David Clegg, deputy chairman and chief operating officer of the NC Employment Security Commission. Next year, depending on the economy, could add another $2 billion to the tab, he said.

For purposes of comparison