Showing posts with label great depression. Show all posts
Showing posts with label great depression. Show all posts

Friday, August 31, 2012

The $3,200,000,000,000 Question: Why Housing Has Much More To Drop Before It Bottoms

Hit the link
The chart is such reality check, that it's mind blowing, when viewed in the perception of unemployment.
That 3 trillion dollar difference that housing needs to come down, used to
jobs of the trades. Plumbers electricians, framers, flooring people, painters etc....
Damn that was depressing and what makes it more so is that they're pushing hard the "Unmanned Industry" which only makes for more jobs lost, in the unending direction of none made.


It is no secret that having failed repeatedly at the trickle down aspect of QE1, QE2, Op Twist 1, Op Twist 2 (and implicitly LTRO 1 and LTRO 2) as it pertains to the man in the street (if not the man in Wall Street, who was subject to 1-2 years of subpar bonuses which have since regained their upward trendline), the last effort the central planners of the world, and the administration, have is to furiously do everything in their power to reflate housing one more time, following what is already a triple dip in home prices ever since the December 2007 start of the Second Great Depression. Which is why month after month we get seasonally fudged, conflicted and outright manipulated data from various sources how housing has bottomed, for real this time, and things are finally looking up. Remember: with any con game, the key word is confidence, and the US consumers need to regain their confidence. Sadly, as the following very simple chart and accompanying explanation, the answer to the housing question is only one: there will be no housing recovery until much more debt is eliminated. $3.2 trillion to be precise. Everything else is merely fits and spurts of upward action predicated by easy money hitting the market either directly, or via the "REO-to-Rental" stimulus program du jour, which lasts for a few months then promptly evaporates.

The chart in question:

Market crash 'could hit within weeks', warn bankers

Kids it's seriously getting close to the time where it will be very important to have some food and water away for survival.
There is rumblings of a rumor, that Morgan Stanley is up for the place on the sacrificial alter.
Heed the warning, the life you save maybe your own.

Insurance on the debt of several major European banks has now hit historic levels, higher even than those recorded during financial crisis caused by the US financial group's implosion nearly three years ago.

Credit default swaps on the bonds of Royal Bank of Scotland, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank and Intesa Sanpaolo, among others, flashed warning signals on Wednesday. Credit default swaps (CDS) on RBS were trading at 343.54 basis points, meaning the annual cost to insure £10m of the state-backed lender's bonds against default is now £343,540.

The cost of insuring RBS bonds is now higher than before the taxpayer was forced to step in and rescue the bank in October 2008, and shows the recent dramatic downturn in sentiment among credit investors towards banks.

"The problem is a shortage of liquidity – that is what is causing the problems with the banks. It feels exactly as it felt in 2008," said one senior London-based bank executive.

"I think we are heading for a market shock in September or October that will match anything we have ever seen before," said a senior credit banker at a major European bank.