Tuesday, March 23, 2010

You just think health care reform is not going to affect you

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2115-Its-Gonna-Be-Like-Christmas!-Health-Care.html

Think again

"It's just going to be like Christmas," said DeCarlo Flythe, who lost health coverage for his family when he was laid off almost three years ago. "It's going to be great. You know, no worries (about) the bills. We are going to go ahead and pay our co-pay and be alright."

You got the $10,000 for the policy and another $10k for the out-of-pocket deductibles, right?

Yes, I know if you are lower-income you'll get subsidies. But that being laid off thing might become more-permanently laid off, you see, since if you go back to work your employer will have to either pay a fine (annually) or pick up the majority of that $10k in cost.

If your value in the marketplace is $20/hour, with a 2,000 hour man-year of work (50 weeks x 40 hours/week) your economic value in the economy is $40,000 (gross.) From this your employer is going to have to take $10,000 out to avoid being fined, which means you now make $15/hour. Then you pay taxes (FICA and Medicare) on that. You'll likely get back the rest of your federal income tax (especially if you have a family) but your out-of-pocket medical expenses will still be that $10,000 either way.

So now you've got $30,000/year less about $2,300 in Medicare and FICA tax, and from that you subtract the co-pays and deductibles of $10,000. You're left with about $18,000 to live on, or about $1,500 a month for your family of four.

This sounds like "Christmas"?